Friday 📸: Favorite Trade, Market Bias, Portfolio Positioning & Performance

Pithy Subtitle Goes Here

Feb 20, 2026

Favorite Trade

Lotta noise out there. Our concomitant amplifiers of social and traditional media are firing on all cylinders. Who cares. Yes - private equity and credit companies are taking a shit. So is tech. Let the air out - that’s a good thing. Hopefully this rotation will turn market myopia into a more panoramic paradigm.

As long as there isn’t a liquidity issue, our technical-based systems work. If liquidity dries up, we’ll get the fuck out. We are not there yet.

I think many market gurus are incentivized to call out systemic risks because they feel their credibility will be at stake if something bad happens and they didn’t say anything prior. If they keep calling out risks and one hits - they’ll be right and receive a windfall of attention.

But did they make money with their reputational hedging? Key words to watch out for with these guys’ posts are phrases like ‘be careful’, ‘probably nothing’, and alarmist emojis like ⚠️.

Energy, beans and bean oil, shippers, emerging markets’ stocks and currencies, base metals, biotech, solar, commodity producers - that’s what’s working.

And it is all the same, reflationary idea. We size each trade accordingly and small (about 1-3% per trade right now) - so that we can cast a wide net over a diverse array of correlated assets. Yes - that means we are trading in a concentrated, not particularly diversified way. That’s counter to everything you hear from people that don’t trade. They’ll tell you to diversify with bonds. In this environment, that doesn’t work.

Though, TIPS (inflation linked bonds) and short duration bonds are working fine. If that’s your kinda thing. I always keep some exposure to the short duration bond ETF ‘SHV’ - which acts like my pool of cash.

XLE: (we have calls here)