Friday 📸: Trades, Bias & Portfolio Review

Happy Friday.

Favorite Trade

If I had to buy only one ETF right now, I’d buy OIH - Oil Services. Not because I believe oil is good or bad for humanity, not because of ‘the fundamentals’. Because of this 6+ year base and breakout:

If I had to buy one commodity, and I had already bought OIH, I’d buy Cotton. Yes, I am going to keep saying that. But I’d buy rubber as a close second.

If you’re mad at me for saying to buy an oil-related ETF, that’s cool. Buy Hydrogen:

Market Bias

The broad index of US stocks looks like a big do-nothing. But liquidity is flowing. Look at financial conditions and money supply in the form of M2…

New York Stock Exchange Index:

Financial Conditions per the Fed (the lower the line the looser financial conditions are):

Money supply (M2):

So, where is all that capital flowing? Commodities:

You wanna buy stocks or commodities in this environment? Well, commodities, commodity producer stocks, and emerging markets as long as US stocks don’t take a big ole shit.

See you on the weekend,

-Andy

Portfolio Positioning and Performance

Swing account (6-12month timeframe) year-to-date performance (Since 01/01/26): +20.35%