If a monster is hybridity gone awry, then wheat qualifies.
First cultivated ~10,000 years ago, contemporary wheat contains some 16 billion base pairs of DNA - 5x that of a human.1
There are more than 25,000 varieties of wheat - adapted to climates ranging from Mediterranean to Sub-tropical. It occupies more land than any other crop and comprises about 1/5th of global human calorie intake. The wheat trade is greater by volume than all other crops combined.2
This monstrous hybrid grass is the endosperm of empire. From Egypt to The Olive Garden™️.
People on the west coast of the US, especially actors, think it’s bad. ‘Ancient’ grains are cool though.3
Here’s the thing - shipping is under attack. It is the stated strategy of Ukraine to disrupt Russian trade, and Russia is retaliating by attacking Ukrainian ports in Odesa.
The Black Sea is to wheat what the Persian Gulf is to oil.4
Russia and Ukraine together were forecast to account for ~28% of global wheat exports in 2026-27.5
From the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service6:
Then there’s the US. According to the titillatingly titled USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report (from July 10) this is the lowest wheat harvest in the US since 1970-71. And this is why — 63% of the ‘winter wheat’ varietal is an in area experiencing drought.
And here’s a look at overall US wheat crop conditions - a clear downtrend:
Declining wheat harvests due to failed Nile flooding in Ancient Egypt led to famine, political upheaval and economic disaster. Without wheat, they couldn’t trade.
Maybe this is the way the world ends, not with a bang but with a cereal.
-Andy
ICYMI: we are long dry bulk shipping, two varieties of wheat, and the broad agricultural ETF ‘DBA’ — check out the portfolio:
Friday 📸: Portfolio Review, New Trades
Good Morning and an I’m-chuffed-you’re-here welcome to the new subscribers.
Telma de Sousa 1,2,3, Miguel Ribeiro 1,2,3, Carolina Sabença 1,2,3, Gilberto Igrejas 1,2,3, The 10,000-year Success Story of Wheat, Edited by Barbara Laddomada, Weiqun Wang. National Library of Medicine: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8467621/
Ibid.
Personal experience of actors.
Black Sea Becomes the Main Risk Factor for the Global Wheat Market, by UkrAgroConsult, July 16, 2026: https://ukragroconsult.com/en/news/black-sea-becomes-the-main-risk-factor-for-the-global-wheat-market/
Ibid.
USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, Commodity Intelligence Report: Russia Wheat General Review, Sept. 26, 2025. https://www.fas.usda.gov/sites/default/files/2026-02/09-2025-Russia.pdf
How did you pick the wheat future options expiry? It looks like you targeted ~0.4 delta - a guess because I don't know when you bought. Thanks for the opportunity to learn and love the idea.